Sardine · what happened last time

Spot—

Settles in—

Status—

Get told when a contract is priced away from its history — you can't watch 96 windows a day. alert at difference

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Kalshi YES ask — Sardine — Even money Settles —

BTC — Target —

What usually happens

Settlement rate by how far price sat from the strike and how much time was left. Every cell is a count of real windows.

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Every strike on this board

Contract	Bid / Ask	Settled YES	95% range	Past windows	Difference

This is a count, not a forecast. For every past window we recorded how far Bitcoin had moved from the strike — scaled by volatility, since 0.1% means something different in a calm hour than a wild one — and how much time was left. Then we counted what actually settled. BTC · ETH · XRP · 52,000 windows each · 22 May – today · minimum 40 per cell. Where fewer than 40 past windows match, or the move is outside the range we have history for, we show nothing rather than guess. Difference is the settlement rate minus Kalshi's ask minus their fee, which peaks at 1.75¢ near 50¢ — right where most of these trade. Prices come live from Kalshi and are not stored. Past frequency is not a prediction of the next window.